Predicting marine biological hazards to prevent socio-economic impacts
PrimePrevention, led by Dr. Katja Metfies (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research) deals with marine biological risks in the Baltic Sea.
Why do we do this?
Climate change and human activities are leading to more frequent and intense extreme events such as storms, floods and heat waves, which severely impact coastal and marine ecosystems.
As water temperatures rise, there is a greater risk that a wide variety of microorganisms that are harmful to humans and ecosystems will appear in large numbers in the North and Baltic Seas, as we currently know from tropical regions. Previous research has shown that bacteria of the genus Vibrio, for example, are only occasionally found in seawater in temperate summers. Such potentially pathogenic bacteria can multiply explosively during heat waves when the water temperature exceeds 22 degrees Celsius - and the likelihood of this increases with climate change. This applies equally to the occurrence of cyanobacteria and hypoxia.
These threats can have serious consequences for human health, fisheries and tourism, among others. The development of reliable forecast models and early warning systems is therefore crucial. We must overcome these challenges to ensure the long-term protection and sustainability of these ecosystems.
Our goal
Our goal is to generate technical solutions for monitoring marine biological hazards and scientific knowledge to better predict the impacts of the occurrence of cyano, vibrio and hypoxia, accelerating the path from measuring extreme events to informing society early about the threats.
In PrimePrevention, these new methods and relevant prediction strategies are developed from the outset in close cooperation with companies and users so that the needs of the target groups are taken into account and socio-economic consequences are addressed in an optimized manner.
The results should provide robust early warning systems, an improved data infrastructure and concrete recommendations for action.
Our objectives in detail: 1. Socioeconomic impacts and requirements for early warning systems: Providing information on the socioeconomic impacts of the occurrence of marine biological hazards. Investigating the technological and logistical requirements for an efficient early warning system. 2. Technical infrastructure and data collection: Developing and deploying a technical infrastructure for the efficient collection and provision of key oceanographic data. Implementing new sensor technologies and data collection systems to monitor biological hazards. 3. Modelling and prediction: Integrating historical and current data sets to model the occurrence of biological hazards. Developing prediction models taking into account the factors influencing the occurrence and spread of these hazards. 4. Recommendations and information channels: Developing recommendations for early warning systems tailored to the needs of society and marine user groups. Establishing information channels to prevent or minimise the socioeconomic impacts of marine biological hazards.
How do we do that?
We use an interdisciplinary approach that combines natural and social science methods. The technical infrastructure for data collection includes both traditional and innovative sensor technologies. Historical and current data are integrated to develop comprehensive predictive models. In addition, social science analyses are carried out to understand the needs and expectations of the various stakeholders. By integrating historical and current data, precise predictive models are created to minimize socio-economic impacts on health, fisheries and tourism.
PrimePrevention comprises a consortium of various institutions and companies working together to develop surveillance technologies and early warning systems.
Expected results
Early warning systems: Development and implementation of early warning systems for marine biological hazards in the Baltic Sea.
Data infrastructure: Building a robust technical infrastructure for continuous monitoring and data analysis.
Modelling: Accurate models to predict the emergence and spread of biological hazards.
Recommendations: Concrete recommendations for action to minimize the socio-economic impacts of marine biological hazards.
News
Network partners
- Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg
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Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
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AquaEcology GmbH & Co. K
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Archeoinformatics - Data Science, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
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Biome-id, Wilhelmshaven
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Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH)
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Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg
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Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
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Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR)
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Institut für Ostseefischerei, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut Bundesforschungsinstitut für Ländliche Räume, Wald und Fischerei
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Jade Hochschule Wilhelmshaven/Oldenburg/Elsfleth
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Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW)
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Marine Sensorsysteme, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg
Publications
- Schernewski, G., Jekat, M., Kösters, F., Neumann, T., Steffen, S., & von Thenen, M. (2024). Ecosystem Services Supporting Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs): Assessments of Navigation Waterways Deepening Based on Data, Experts, and a 3D Ecosystem Model. Land, 13(10), 1653.
